Crypto analyst Hitesh: The real bull market cycle is about to start and will last until October

Original title: Everything before this was just noise—now the real bull cycle begins

Original author: hitesh.eth

Compiled by: Asher

Recently, the price correction of Bitcoin has caused a significant decline in altcoins in almost all sectors, and some sectors have even experienced extreme retracements. According to ROOTDATA data on February 8, since Bitcoin's first correction on December 17, 2024, the AI Agent sector has fallen the most, reaching 72.41%; followed by the Meme sector, with a drop of 59.24%; the GameFi sector fell by 56.96%; the NFT sector fell by 54.8%, and some other categories also fell by more than 40%.

Data source: RootData

Perhaps when the bubble fades and the market goes through a round of washout, the real opportunity to buy at the bottom will quietly come. According to the chart backtesting historical data released by analyst PlanB, all Bitcoin profits appeared in the red period in the figure (i.e. six months before the halving to eighteen months after the halving), while the blue period in the figure was all losses. We are currently in the red period, and the bull market is expected to continue until October (from February).

PlanB vs BTC Analysis Chart

In addition, from a macro perspective, the real bull market cycle of crypto may have just started.

In this article, hitesh.eth analyzes the vision of crypto society and explores the two paths that the crypto market may face in the future: one is anarchy full of speculation and freedom, and the other is gradually strengthened supervision and control. With the development of the market and technological progress, these two paths will become clearer, and the real bull market cycle may be about to begin.

The following is the original content (for easier reading and understanding, the original content has been reorganized):

Crypto was supposed to be an anarchic experiment

The birth of cryptography is not accidental, it has been developed over decades, driven by thousands of cryptographers, with the goal of building a truly decentralized crypto society where legal identity is no longer a requirement, everyone can remain anonymous, and governance, currency, communication, interaction, and collaboration are driven entirely by cryptography without any authority restrictions.

In such a world, people can freely create markets, transactions are unconstrained, wealth truly belongs to individuals, and the tax system has no control. The power institutions and banking system have long controlled the economy and have long been deeply corrupt, and the carefully constructed illusion makes it difficult for people to realize that they have been trapped.

The voice of Bitcoin awakening

The emergence of Bitcoin points the way to the development of a crypto-anarchic society. It provides an alternative to the traditional financial system, enabling individuals to independently control their wealth without relying on banks or governments. For the first time, money has achieved true decentralization, censorship resistance, transparency, and permissionlessness.

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin white paper, which was not only a technological breakthrough, but also a change of thought. It shook the foundation of the centralized monetary system, revealed the drawbacks of the government and financial elites manipulating fiat currencies, and marked an important step in breaking long-term economic oppression.

Subsequently, Ethereum built a complete development infrastructure, comprehensively explored the application scenarios of blockchain technology, and promoted the first wave of the crypto-anarchy era.

Everything can be tokenized

A crypto-anarchic society requires infrastructure to support tokenization, allowing everything that can be expressed in words or images to be tokenized and build liquid markets around them.

This vision was first proposed by cypherpunk legend Timothy May in the Crypto-Anarchy Manifesto in 1988. He described a world empowered by cryptographic tools, where privacy, freedom, and personal sovereignty are realized and no longer controlled by governments and centralized power. May described how encrypted communications, anonymous transactions, and decentralized systems can make oppressive institutions irrelevant. The manifesto became the ideological cornerstone of Bitcoin and the broader crypto movement, inspiring developers and thinkers to see cryptography as the ultimate tool for human liberation.

If we ignore price fluctuations and focus on the essence of market development, we can find that a key liquidity guidance mechanism, the Bonding Curve, was unlocked last year. This mechanism can create a liquid market for various things based on text concepts. In the field of images, NFT has already completed this exploration in the last cycle. The current experimental direction is to create as many liquid markets as possible to meet the needs of different levels.

Meme Coin is the Market

On the surface, creating a meme coin means creating liquid markets that don’t seem to make sense, but at its core it’s about creating markets, assuming that some people like to speculate on “X” and providing them with access to the chain so that they can profit from it.

In this speculative process, people form beliefs around certain things, and these beliefs are derived from the theories or data they adopt. So in effect, we are building liquid markets for various tokenized beliefs.

The Wild West of Crypto Anarchy

In a state of crypto-anarchy, people could trade opinions, trends, stories, articles, songs, memes, research papers, reputations, gossip, reviews, recipes, and a host of other things that are currently unimaginable, and it’s all crazy.

As written in the Crypto-Anarchy Manifesto, we will reach this stage sooner or later, and we now have the infrastructure to support various wild liquidity markets, but the current problem is that most markets are exploited by powerful players who want to consolidate their existing gains.

Solving the problem of fair incentive distribution in liquid markets is to create a reputation layer for crypto anarchy, where participants can verify the reputation of creators before participating in the market, and creators can verify their reputation before accepting users.

Two options for the future

The current crypto market is at a critical stage, with two paths to choose from, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. The first path leads to more speculation and freedom, bringing about an evolving crypto-anarchy. In this state, new markets are constantly emerging, wealth is constantly made and lost in speculative cycles, and those who can adapt and act quickly will prosper.

The second path means stronger regulation and control, leading to a regulated crypto economy. This provides stable, compliant and structured investment opportunities, led by institutions and traditional financial players, providing a more predictable but controlled environment. As the United States introduces crypto regulations, the difference between these two paths will become more obvious. The regulated market will focus on "cash cow" projects and Web3 businesses that generate real income, which will also be the starting point of the first cycle of the bull market under authoritarian control.

Crypto anarchy will continue to change rapidly at the edges, if there are 100 markets, 99 may fall, and one market will absorb the liquidity of all other markets. The value of attention will rise, and those who can master this pattern will continue to win the battle. There will always be bull cycles in some corner of crypto anarchy, the key is to be able to identify and get the most benefits from them.